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Olympics

Backcountry Avalanche Forecast

This is an archived product. View the most recent forecast or all archived forecasts.

Author: Robert Hahn

Issued: Friday, March 6, 2026 at 6:00 PM PST

Expires: Saturday, March 7, 2026 at 6:00 PM PST

The Bottom Line

It will be difficult to evade the wet snow on Saturday. Warm temperatures and rainfall will destabilize the surface snow above a recent crust. Use inconsequential test slopes to check for entrainment before venturing onto longer open slopes. 

Avalanche Danger

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Upper Elevations
6500-5500ft
2 - ModerateModerate
Middle Elevations
5500-4500ft
2 - ModerateModerate
Lower Elevations
4500-3000ft
1 - LowLow

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Upper Elevations
6500-5500ft
2 - ModerateModerate
Middle Elevations
5500-4500ft
2 - ModerateModerate
Lower Elevations
4500-3000ft
1 - LowLow
Elevation Band Descriptions
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral Info1 - Low2 - Mod3 - Cons4 - High5 - Extr
Low
1 - Low
Moderate
2 - Moderate
Considerable
3 - Considerable
High
4 - High
Extreme
5 - Extreme
Travel AdviceGenerally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential.Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended.Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain.
Likelihood of AvalanchesNatural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely.Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible.Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely.Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely.Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain.
Avalanche Size and DistributionSmall avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain.Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas.Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas.Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas.Very large avalanches in many areas.

Avalanche Problems (1)

Problem #1: Wet Loose

Problem Type
Wet Loose
Aspect/Elevation
NNEESESSWWNW
Likelihood
CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossibleUnlikely
Size
Historic (D4-5)Very Large (D3)Large (D2)Small (D1)

Example: Recently wetted surface layers of previously cold, dry snow could slide as temperatures increase. 

Photo: Matt Primomo

Rain falling to increasingly higher elevations Friday through Friday night should moisten or saturate previously shallow amounts of cold snow above the 3/4 crust. By Saturday, any precipitation should be very light and sporadic, but the conditions for shallow loose wet avalanches remain. You can trigger them in areas where you encounter stick or wet snow up to the top of your ankle. Take a moment to push this snow on a steep slope and see whether it wants to continue down the slope or stops. If the former, consider whether an avalanche, once initiated could become larger than you expect on a long, steep slope. Terrain traps increase your risk if you are pushed into a gully, creek, or shallow snow cover obstacles. This problem is mostly confined to areas above 5000 ft that received 4-6" or more of recent snow. In the eastern Olympics, this problem may be more pronounced due to greater recent snow depths. Observers on Mt Elinor reported about 1 ft of sticky snow easily pushable down-slope above a firm crust. It is in these areas on a long, steep slope where a wet loose avalanche could become dangerous.

Forecast Discussion

Our winter of fluctuating snow levels continues. Snow changed to rain at Hurricane Ridge on Friday, wetting several inches of sticky snow that fell above atop the 4-6" of snow fell that buried a variably thick ~1" crust on 3/4.  Photos from the gallery depict this dry snow that existed on the surface on Thursday.

 Below that you'll likely find dense older snow. We have been continuing to monitor facets and surface hoar above the 2/13 crust about 2 ft below the snow surface. ONP Rangers in the Klahanie Bowl area found the facets to be rounding, but did not find the surface hoar in either of two snow pit locations. The rounding facets just above the 2/13 crust had enough of a cohesive slab above to produce minimal reactivity in PST tests, showing improvement relative to last week. The 3/4 crust bridges these weaknesses at present in the Hurricane Ridge area, but you may not find that to be the case in other portions of the range. There is a slight chance that the 3/4 crust may break down as temperatures stay unseasonably warm through Saturday. If this occurs and you find yourself sinking into moist or wet snow past your ankles, conditions are not in line with the current forecast and could be more dangerous in your area. WIn this case, wet avalanches could gouge more deeply to become large, or alternatively wet avalanches could wake up our sleeping weaker layers. When uncertainty exists, use terrain selections to choose simple slopes less than 35 degrees. Persistent slabs are notorious for surprising backcountry travelers; they break more widely across the slope and can be triggered from lower-angle terrain than run-of-the-mill storm slab avalanches. Whumphing was observed in the NE Olympics around Baldy on 3/1. This was a clear sign that these layers held some reactivity at the time. Several natural avalanche crowns from from late February were visible in the Hurricane Ridge area and also the Bailey Range and likely resulted from the previously weak snowpack structure. 

Lower elevations have melted out once again in the Hurricane Ridge area.  Even at middle elevations, many aspects remain thin, presenting travel obstacles.  Travel cautiously in these areas to avoid injury.  

This is an unusual snowpack setup for the Olympics and we need your observations! Share what you see with us, we love photos and clear descriptions. Read the neighboring Cascade zones to see how persistent slabs and an extended period of strong winds are leading to dangerous conditions in many areas. 

This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions. It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.