West Slopes Central
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Irene Henninger
Issued: Monday, March 16, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
Expires: Tuesday, March 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
The Bottom Line
The Bottom LineRain fell on a thick layer of light, dry storm snow on Monday, and many wet avalanches ran in surface layers. We don't expect as many avalanches Tuesday, but any that happen will likely be larger and less predictable than the previous day's. Stick to lower-angle terrain on Tuesday, and if you see large, natural avalanches coming down, give lower-angle slopes beneath large avalanche paths plenty of clearance as well.
Avalanche Danger
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Wednesday, March 18, 2026
7500-5500ft4 - High
5500-4500ft4 - High
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
 1 - Low |  2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable | 4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (1)
Problem #1: Wet Slab
Problem Type
Wet Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
A large natural wet slab avalanche, like one you might see on Tuesday. If these frequently come running down, avalanche danger is higher and you should avoid all avalanche terrain.
After the initial rain-on-snow event on Monday, we expect avalanche activity to slow. But temperatures are staying warm, and it'll continue to rain, so as water impacts deeper into the snowpack, larger avalanches could release, although probably less frequently than the previous day.
On Monday, wet loose avalanches ran. At some point, wet slabs are expected to start releasing. It's extremely challenging to predict when we'll start seeing these large, scary, and highly unpredictable avalanches. We think they'll really kick off Tuesday night when rain picks up, but they might happen sooner. Wet loose avalanches are expected to continue running at less frequent intervals, but they could gouge deeper and run farther than the previous day.
Avoid traveling on any steep slopes on Tuesday. If you see natural avalanches coming down, steer around the bottom of avalanche paths as well. This is also a day to not linger beneath skinny, tight gullies even at lower elevations that connect to higher-elevation terrain.
Forecast Discussion
About 1-1.5 inches of rain fell in the zone Sunday night and Monday. A small wet avalanche cycle likely happened early Monday morning. Low clouds broke up in the afternoon, and I was able to see wet loose avalanches had run on most steep slopes in the Highway 2 corridor.
Around half an inch of rain is expected to fall Monday night, and similar amounts again during the day. From the southern part of the Mtn Loop down to Snoqualmie Pass, there's about 2 feet of snow sitting over the 3/12 crust. Further north, we suspect there's only about a foot. We expect water to eventually percolate down to the 3/12 crust, and potentially lubricate above the crust, resulting in wet slab avalanches. Further north, where there's less snow over the crust, wet slab avalanches could happen sooner than to the south.
When rainfall amounts pick up Tuesday night, we expect a natural wet slab cycle, with lingering very large and highly unpredictable natural wet-slab avalanches continuing into Wednesday. We don't think slab avalanches will step down below the 3/12 crust, but it's not completely off the table that an even larger, deeper one could happen.
Expect challenging travel conditions with rain and deep, wet snow on Tuesday.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.