West Slopes North
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Irene Henninger
Issued: Tuesday, March 3, 2026 at 6:00 PM PST
Expires: Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 6:00 PM PST
The Bottom Line
The Bottom LineA new load of snow is increasing avalanche danger in the zone. It's likely you can trigger avalanches in the new snow layer, and there's a chance they could step down to produce even larger, wide-spanning scary avalanches in underlying weak layers. Stick to lower-angle, sheltered terrain on Wednesday, and if you see any large natural avalanches, steer clear of areas beneath large open slopes as well.
Avalanche Danger
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft2 - Moderate
Thursday, March 5, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft2 - Moderate
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
 1 - Low | 2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable |  4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (3)
Problem #1: Storm Slab
Problem Type
Storm Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
Example photo: A snowmobile-triggered slab avalanche in the Baker NRA, similar to what you could trigger on Wednesday.
Photo: Irene Henninger
It's likely that you could trigger a large slab avalanche in the new snow that falls Tuesday night and Wednesday. We suspect the most reactive layers will be in wind-loaded areas, but it may be hard to detect where wind-loaded slopes are- and up high, there's just a lot of incoming snow. This is a good day to steer around all steep terrain and stick to lower-angle, sheltered areas.
By the end of the day, upper elevations in some spots in the zone, like the Baker backcountry, could have around two feet of new snow. Expect greater danger in areas with more snow. Near the bottom of the mid elevation band, and possibly the top of the lower elevation band, there may be just enough snow for you to trigger a small avalanche.
Even if you trigger smaller avalanches in the new layer, they could step down to a persistent layer on large, steep slopes and result in a very large, unsurvivable avalanche.
Problem #2: Persistent Slab
Problem Type
Persistent Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(2/28/2026)
Very large, dangerous avalanches have failed on persistent layers lately. These may still be active- and much deeper - on Wednesday.
This is a day to travel cautiously and stick to conservative terrain. A persistent slab problem remains highly variable across the zone, and 1–2 inches of added water (up to 1–2 feet of snow at higher elevations) may further stress buried weak layers. Avalanche activity could increase during peak precipitation Tuesday night, with lingering concern into Wednesday. Natural avalanches are possible. Consider also that a smaller storm slab could step down into a much larger and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche.
Recent observations are limited and mixed—some areas showed little activity while others produced natural, remote, and human-triggered avalanches. Most failures have occurred 2–4 feet deep near crust-associated weak layers, mainly on northerly aspects but not exclusively. Classic warning signs like collapsing or cracking remain important, though deeper instabilities may give few clues. Favor lower-angle, less wind-loaded terrain on Wednesday.
Problem #3: Wet Loose
Problem Type
Wet Loose
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
Example photo: Wet loose avalanches like ones that may happen at lower elevations on Wednesday.
Lower elevations received mostly rain during this storm- a lot of it. Steep slopes that have a thick, wet layer of snow that you're sinking more than a few inches deep in could produce rollerballs or wet avalanches. There could also be natural avalanches in this layer of soft, wet snow. If you see natural avalanches, or you're sinking past your ankles in wet snow, stick to lower angle terrain and steer clear of the bottom of steep paths that an avalanche might run down to.
Forecast Discussion
Over the weekend, travelers covered much of the zone—thank you to everyone who shared observations. Conditions varied widely by location. Near-low-danger conditions were reported around Schriebers on the south side of Mount Baker (observation), while observers near the Cascade River noted limited wet loose activity and a few recent slabs on south aspects triggered by small wet slides (observation). Widespread wind-hammered snow from last week’s strong west winds was also noted.
Recent persistent slab activity has been isolated but consequential. Aside from one large and one very large natural avalanche in the Baker backcountry (observation) (observation), most activity has occurred in wind-loaded terrain near Excelsior Ridge and on Chowder Ridge between Skyline and Hadley Peak. The takeaway is variability: most slopes appear stable, but isolated wind-loaded higher areas are still capable of producing large avalanches. With new snow, be prepared to see an uptick in activity.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.