West Slopes North
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Irene Henninger
Issued: Monday, March 16, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
Expires: Tuesday, March 17, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
The Bottom Line
The Bottom LineThe foot of nice, dry snow that fell last week got heavy and then wet on Monday, resulting in a small avalanche cycle. More rain Monday night and Tuesday means we expect continued avalanche activity, with avalanches probably becoming less frequent but growing larger as time passes. Stay off steep slopes on Tuesday, and if you see natural avalanches, steer around the bottom of large steep slopes as well.
Avalanche Danger
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Wednesday, March 18, 2026
7500-5500ft4 - High
5500-4500ft4 - High
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
 1 - Low |  2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable | 4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (1)
Problem #1: Wet Slab
Problem Type
Wet Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(1/27/2024)
It's hard to pin down when, exactly, large wet slab avalanches to happen. If there are many like this on Tuesday, then danger is High.
Photo: Pete Durr - USFS
After the initial rain-on-snow event on Monday, we expect avalanche activity to slow. But temperatures are staying warm, and it'll continue to rain, so as water impacts deeper into the snowpack, larger avalanches could release. We suspect they will happen less frequently, but they could gouge deeper and run farther than the previous day.
The avalanches that we saw Monday started as storm slabs, when heavier snow fell over the light, dry snow. By midday, as rain reached into upper elevations, wet loose avalanches probably began running down. At some point, wet slabs are expected to start releasing. It's extremely challenging to predict when we'll start seeing these large, scary, and highly unpredictable avalanches. We think they'll really kick off Tuesday night when rain picks up, but they might happen sooner.
Avoid traveling on any steep slopes on Tuesday. If you see natural avalanches coming down, we've probably reach high danger, so steer around the bottom of avalanche paths as well. This is also a day to not linger beneath skinny, tight gullies, even at lower elevations that connect to higher-elevation terrain.
Forecast Discussion
A little over an inch of rain fell in the central and western parts of the zone Sunday night and Monday, and further east, rain amounted to closer to half an inch. When heavier snow began falling Monday morning, an avalanche cycle ensued, consisting mainly of small storm-slab avalanches. Mid elevations transitioned to rain late morning, and we suspect there were subsequent wet loose avalanches.
Around half an inch of rain is expected to fall Monday night, and similar amounts again during the day. There's about a foot of snow on top of the 3/12 crust, and by Tuesday we expect most, if not all, of that previously light, dry snow to be wet. As water eventually percolates down to the 3/12 crust and potentially lubricates above the crust, wet slab avalanches could run on the crust.
When rainfall amounts pick up Tuesday night, we expect a natural wet slab cycle, with lingering very large and highly unpredictable natural wet slab avalanches continuing into Wednesday. We don't think slab avalanches will step down below the 3/12 crust, but it's not completely off the table that an even larger, deeper one could happen.
Expect challenging travel conditions on Tuesday, with rain and wet snow.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.