West Slopes North
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Lee Lazzara
Issued: Sunday, March 15, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
Expires: Monday, March 16, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
The Bottom Line
The Bottom LineAvoid travel on or beneath steep slopes as snowfall changes to rain, and the snow surface becomes wet and mushy. This includes gullies connected to larger terrain above. If you observe widespread wet avalanche activity, assume HIGH danger and call it a day.
Avalanche Danger
Monday, March 16, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
 1 - Low |  2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable |  4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (2)
Problem #1: Wet Loose
Problem Type
Wet Loose
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(12/9/2025)
It's likely we will see a repeat of this sort of avalanche activity in the coming week.
Photo: Jere Burrell - Guided Exposure
Rain on dry snow is never a good time—unless you’re a fan of wet avalanches. Rainfall isn’t expected to be particularly intense, but it will be enough to get some wet snow moving downhill. Most people will want to avoid steep slopes holding wet, sloppy snow. Flat terrain directly below steep slopes is also suspect, as wet avalanches can start higher on a slope and run far into flatter terrain below.
Smaller wet avalanches can also step down into slabs and become much larger. Snow shedding from trees, rollerballs, and small wet avalanches are the first signs that the mountains are getting ready to shed wet snow. Once you see these, expect bigger avalanches to follow.
Problem #2: Storm Slab
Problem Type
Storm Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(12/23/2024)
Shallow storm slabs often release on slightly softer, weaker snow below.
Photo: Crystal Mountain Ski Patrol
Heavy, wet snowfall overnight will create a layer of dense snow over colder, lighter snow below. This problem will mainly exist at upper elevations, which is also where few people are likely to travel on Monday as the weather should be basically terrible. However, you might still find slabs of drier snow at mid-elevations in the morning.
Small test slopes, hand pits, and other simple tests can help gauge how well the new snow is bonding. Shooting cracks and recent avalanches are red flags that the snow is unstable and that you may trigger avalanches on steep slopes. As usual, the greatest hazard will be on slopes where wind has drifted snow into thicker or more sensitive slabs.
Forecast Discussion
Monday’s forecast is a bit tricky. Not so much in wondering what happens when rain falls on dry snow—we already know how that plays out. The real issue is the timing of rising snow levels versus when the bulk of the precipitation arrives.
As it stands now, most of the precipitation should fall overnight as snow at mid and upper elevations, which should limit the amount of water available to saturate and weaken the upper snowpack. However, a few subtle changes in the weather could cause avalanche danger to jump to High very quickly. Be on the lookout for heavier precipitation or warmer temperatures first thing in the morning, as these will be the first signs the day may be more dangerous than expected.
A quiet Sunday morning in the mountains gave way to a blustery afternoon as winds increased and began drifting snow. Plenty of wind transport was observed, and people found fresh wind slabs, but for the most part they were shallow and small. A bit of settlement seemed to keep the loose dry problem in check—or perhaps most steep slopes had already been ridden on Saturday and all the loose snow had already sluffed off.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.