West Slopes North
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Irene Henninger
Issued: Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
Expires: Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
The Bottom Line
The Bottom LineIt's been raining for over three days now, and wet avalanches of all varieties are on the menu for Thursday. You can trigger small and large wet avalanches on steep slopes, and natural avalanches running from steep slopes are possible, including cornice failures, glides, and snow chunks falling off rocks. Avoid all steep slopes, and if you encounter large avalanches running naturally, avalanche danger could be higher, so steer clear of all avalanche terrain, including where avalanches run and stop.
Avalanche Danger
Thursday, March 19, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Friday, March 20, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
 1 - Low |  2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable |  4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (1)
Problem #1: Wet Slab
Problem Type
Wet Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(3/18/2026) View of natural avalanches off of Blueberry and Dog Chute in the Baker backcountry
Photo: Aldis Raisters
It’s been raining on and off for well over 24 hours, making it difficult to predict avalanche activity for Thursday. Another round of wet avalanches likely occurred in the Bagley Basin area Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as rain continued. Many were probably wet slabs failing on the 3/12 crust, about 6–10" below the surface.
While many avalanches have already released on this layer, a few may still be waiting to slide. As water continues to move deeper into the snowpack, isolated avalanches could step down to the 3/8 crust, 18–24" deep. Conditions remain highly uncertain, but ongoing rain suggests a shift toward lower likelihood, higher consequence avalanches. Additional hazards like glide avalanches, falling blocks, and cornices are also possible.
Avoid steep slopes on Thursday. If you see large natural avalanches, move quickly through exposed areas or avoid traveling beneath avalanche paths altogether.
Forecast Discussion
If you reach higher elevations on Thursday, you may encounter new snow. This could form small, stiff wind slabs over saturated surfaces that may be reactive. Strong winds on Wednesday will continue overnight before easing somewhat by Thursday afternoon.
A Pro 1 avalanche course at Heather Meadows has been closely documenting conditions during this unusual weather event. They’ve observed multiple avalanches, including one captured on camera (media), and even used soy sauce to track water percolation and pooling on crust layers (media). Their observations provide valuable insight into how the snowpack is responding to all the rain (observation).
This is an atypical setup, with prolonged rain creating significant uncertainty in the forecast. Careful, on-the-ground evaluation is essential if you travel in the backcountry. Use recent and ongoing avalanche activity as your primary indicator when deciding whether to enter avalanche terrain. Travel conditions are also challenging, with wet, heavy snow, open creek holes, and other hazards that increase the risk of injury and complicate travel.
Temperatures rose above freezing at Heather Meadows and across much of the zone on Monday morning, along with an initial round of wet loose avalanches. Since then, roughly 4 inches of rain have fallen at Heather meadows and other sites near Mount Baker, with slightly lower totals farther east. Rain continues, with over an inch falling Wednesday night and another inch on Thursday. Before the rain, just under a foot of low-density snow sat above the 3/12 crust, and primary concerns were loose dry avalanches with isolated wind slabs near ridgelines.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.