West Slopes North
Backcountry Avalanche Forecast
Author: Irene Henninger
Issued: Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
Expires: Friday, March 20, 2026 at 6:30 PM PDT
The Bottom Line
The Bottom LineAround an inch of rain on Friday will finally wrap up this warm, wet period. Likelihood of natural and human-triggered avalanches is diminishing, but given the high uncertainty with these unusual conditions, and the chance, even if slim, of a large or very large avalanche releasing, avoid all steep terrain. Also, given the uncertainty, consider steering around or traveling quickly beneath large, steep slopes, since large natural avalanches are possible.
Avalanche Danger
Friday, March 20, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Saturday, March 21, 2026
7500-5500ft3 - Considerable
5500-4500ft3 - Considerable
4500-2500ft3 - Considerable
Avalanche Danger ScaleLearn moreGeneral InfoGeneral Information1 - LowLow2 - ModModerate3 - ConsConsiderable4 - HighHigh5 - ExtrExtreme
 1 - Low |  2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable |  4 - High |  5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (2)
Problem #1: Wet Slab
Problem Type
Wet Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
(3/19/2026)
Glide cracks starting to open up in the usual spots in the Baker backcountry, on the east face of Herman.
Photo: Zack McGill - Cascade Mtn Ascents
Our wet snow avalanche concerns are turning into more of a low likelihood/high consequence scenario, where we think many avalanches have already run their course during this unprecedented soggy period. It still wouldn't be unexpected, however, for a large avalanche to release, ripping all the way down a sneaky gully to lower elevations on Friday.
Expect any flavor of wet snow avalanche if you get out on Friday. You might be able to trigger small wet loose avalanches. They might step down to much larger and more destructive slabs on large slopes. Glide cracks are opening up. Beware cornice fall, and snow chunks shedding from steep rock slopes.
Avoid steep terrain on Friday. Given how much uncertainty exists during this unusual period, consider steering around the bottom of large avalanche paths, where avalanches run and stop- or at least traveling quickly through them.
Problem #2: Wind Slab
Problem Type
Wind Slab
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size
Example photo: Small wind slabs deposits could fracture and release at upper elevations on Friday. They may not be very large, but don't let one catch you in high consequence terrain. Note the textured surface where this slab released.
Photo: Adam Ü
We think there could actually be some dry snow falling at upper elevations on Friday- maybe up to a foot! You could trigger an avalanche in wind-drifted snow in areas where deposits grow to six inches or greater.
Steer clear of wind-loaded slabs on steep slopes. They might not be big enough to kill you, but if you're above a terrain trap, the consequences are magnified if you're caught.
Forecast Discussion
An avalanche course at Heather Meadows reported on Thursday that the 3/12 crust 6-10" deep significantly broke down, and now in many spots their steps sink 2 feet deep. They found new glide cracks forming. On Wednesday, they witnessed big snow chunks shedding from steep cliffs. Check out their observation HERE.
As of Thursday evening, Heather Meadows weather station has received over 5 inches of rain since Monday, and other locations near Mt Baker have received from 5.5-7 inches. It's harder to tell with less reliable telemetry, but rain probably totaled about 2 inches farther east in the zone. Snow heights diminished by about a foot and a half. Prior to the rain, about 2-3 feet of snow had fallen, broken midway by the 3/12 crust. Avalanches could fail within the newer layer, or even beneath it now.
Rapid cooling is finally greeting us Friday night, and we expect previously wet, soggy surfaces to freeze by Saturday. They could be solid underfoot, or maybe you could still punch through the crust on Saturday. Avalanche likelihood will further decrease as the crust locks the surface, but given the massive amount of rain that's still trickling through the snowpack, for at least one more day, we wouldn't be surprised if a very large natural avalanche still unexpectedly releases, completely disregarding the superficial surface crust.
Monday morning brought the first rain and warming, and a flurry of wet, loose avalanches followed. Then early Thursday, there was another suspected round of wet slab avalanches, this time larger. Travel conditions are challenging, with wet, heavy snow, open creek holes, and other hazards that increase the risk of injury and complicate travel during this soggy period. Lower elevation snowpacks are rapidly melting, and aside from large avalanches coming down from higher elevations, danger at lower elevations is decreasing.
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.